Nine months out from an assembly and local election, Northern Ireland’s electorate is contemplating redrawing the political map. This week’s widely reported LucidTalk poll saw Sinn Féin (22%), the DUP (15%) and the Alliance Party (10%) all drop to five-year low levels of support at the expense of a resurgent UUP (16%) and SDLP (13%). This aligns with national trends in Great Britain, where Reform UK and the Green Party are threatening to end the Labour-Conservative duopoly. Like all polls, they are reflective of a moment in time and should be understood as a sense checker in a turbulent political environment, and not as a firm prediction of how votes will be cast in next May’s elections.
That being said, its omen is significant for the main three Executive parties. The DUP has been usurped by the UUP for the first time since August 2021, with the political fallout from Donaldson’s conviction for child sex offences. The party’s forthcoming independent review, the sentencing of Donaldson and his appeal of the conviction make it far more difficult to course-correct, than after the removal of Arlene Foster and Edwin Poots as leader. While Sinn Féin remain on course to be returned as the largest party and retain the position of First Minister, they now face the prospect of a 7% drop in support since the 2022 election. There are signs that Michelle O’Neill’s time as First Minister has not delivered expected results; with 4 in 10 of Sinn Féin’s own voters viewing the downscaling of Casement Park as a political failure. The party will be strongly incentivised to take the Communities portfolio next time round to firm up support within their base vote. Meanwhile, Alliance now sit in sixth place, polling at just 10%, placing their 2022 electoral gains at significant risk and potentially serving to reignite speculation on Naomi Long’s future as party leader, after almost a decade of service.
A rejuvenated UUP under the leadership of Jon Burrows has plenty to celebrate, with current polling levels last replicated as far back as 2007, placing them in the driving seat for gains at the Assembly level next May. This is the departures of high-profile former leaders Mike Nesbitt and Doug Beattie. With conflict between the party’s leadership and its MLA team an open secret, this poll and recent strong personal support for Jon Burrows may now embolden him to shape the party in his image. Candidate selections continue ahead of party conference season in late September. These will be crucial in determining whether he can turn increased support into more seats. Likewise, the SDLP’s uptick in support has vindicated its approach to form the first opposition since 2016. Matthew O’Toole’s performance as Leader of the Opposition and Claire Hanna’s pivot as party leader has recaptured support lost to Alliance in 2022. However, they may now be wise to avoid becoming trapped by two competing currents: a pressure to translate time in opposition into an Executive ministry, and their previous comments criticising Alliance for re-entering the Executive without reform of the institutions.
The UUP, SDLP and Alliance are all contemplating the prospect of entering opposition, and the TUV has a longstanding refusal to serve in a Government with Sinn Féin. The probability of a two-party SF-DUP Executive looks significantly higher than previously thought. This eventuality would place the two larger parties under significant pressure to work together to prioritise legislative delivery, enact public service reform and maintain a sustainable financial position. If the latest opinion poll was reflected in an election, Sinn Féin and the DUP could end up forming a minority government, for the first time in Northern Ireland’s history. Arguably this would provide the UUP, SDLP and Alliance with more leverage in opposition, as legislation would have to be negotiated on an individual basis, rather than being a smaller party in an NI Executive dominated by two political heavyweights.
This potential changing political landscape and clear voter dissatisfaction with Stormont delivery is likely to push Stormont reform to the forefront of considerations in the next Assembly mandate. Proposals drafted by four of the five main parties now sets the stage for wider debate on the issue. If Alliance fails to retain their 2022 electoral gains, their leadership may choose to go into opposition. An incoming Executive would have to appoint a Justice Minister capable of receiving cross-community support, likely serving as a catalyst for parties to enter into wider discussions on reform.
Another credible scenario now exists whereby Sinn Féin or the smaller parties could choose to pose reform as a prerequisite for entering the Executive. This would provide the new Secretary of State, Sir Chris Bryant, with the leverage to offer an improved funding package for the region, if the parties agree to reform of Stormont.
With the possibility of Stormont reform, a more fragmented political landscape, and the prospect of a Reform UK Government on the horizon, Agriculture Minister Andrew Muir’s complaint earlier in the year of the Assembly facing a “battle a day” may prove to continue.
Matthew Taylor is an Account Executive with Chambré.
